Greece continues to record positive signals in the process of strengthening its public finances.
According to the latest budget execution data, Greece’s primary surplus in the first seven months of 2026 reached EUR 5.72 billion, significantly higher than the EUR 4.41 billion initially forecast. This result is opening up the possibility that the Government could accelerate its plan for early debt repayment this year.
For a country that once experienced a severe sovereign debt crisis, this is a noteworthy development.
Primary surplus exceeds expectations
In the first seven months of 2026, Greece’s primary surplus reached EUR 5.72 billion, approximately EUR 1.31 billion higher than the initial target.
According to eKathimerini, this result has led the Ministry of Finance to consider increasing the scale of early debt repayment to nearly EUR 13 billion by the end of 2026, instead of around EUR 9 billion under the previous plan.
This is not an improvement that has appeared only in recent weeks.
Previously, in the first six months of the year, the Greek state budget recorded a primary surplus of approximately EUR 4.48 billion, exceeding the target of EUR 2.53 billion.
Thus, the budget outperformance continued into July.
Tax revenue is the main driver
One of the most important reasons behind this result is higher-than-expected tax revenue.
In the first seven months of 2026, Greece’s total tax revenue, excluding certain special revenues from the Egnatia Highway concession and the casino license at Elliniko, reached EUR 42.47 billion.
This figure was around EUR 1.11 billion above target, equivalent to 2.7%.
In the first six months of the year, tax revenue had reached EUR 33.38 billion, also exceeding the target by approximately EUR 584 million.
This is a sign that Greece’s ability to collect budget revenue is improving.
The European Commission has also assessed that improvements in tax compliance, together with the digitalization and strengthening of the tax system, are supporting government revenue.
Early debt repayment: An important step forward
If the plan for nearly EUR 13 billion is implemented, Greece will continue reducing its debt obligations ahead of schedule.
This is significant for a country that once had one of the highest public debt ratios in Europe.
According to Eurostat, Greece’s public debt-to-GDP ratio at the end of Q1/2026 stood at 143.5%, the highest in the EU. However, compared with Q4/2025, the ratio had fallen by 2.6 percentage points; compared with Q1/2025, the decline reached 9.4 percentage points, also the largest decrease in the EU.
The European Commission forecasts that Greece’s public debt-to-GDP ratio will decline from 146.1% in 2025 to 140.7% in 2026 and continue down to 134.4% in 2027.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Greece stated that the public debt target for 2026 could fall to approximately 136.8% of GDP, according to the update in the Greek Government’s Annual Progress Report.
Although forecasts differ depending on the timing and methodology used, the overall trend is quite clear:
Greece’s public debt is declining rapidly.
From a highly indebted country to a story of financial consolidation
The year 2025 marked an important step forward.
According to the Bank of Greece, Greece recorded:
- Overall budget surplus: 1.7% of GDP
- Primary surplus: 4.9% of GDP
- Public debt decreased by 8 percentage points of GDP, to approximately 146.1%.
The Bank of Greece stated that this was the highest primary surplus in the EU and that Greece also recorded the largest decline in the debt-to-GDP ratio among member states.
This creates a significant shift in how the market views Greece.
From a country that was once at the center of Europe’s sovereign debt crisis, Greece is now emerging with a story of stronger public finances, positive economic growth and the ability to repay debt ahead of schedule.
But Greece still faces many challenges
A budget surplus does not mean that every issue facing the economy has been resolved.
The European Commission forecasts Greece’s GDP to grow by 1.8% in 2026, lower than the 2.1% recorded in 2025.
Inflation is also forecast at 3.7% in 2026, amid rising energy prices putting pressure on real household income and household consumption.
In addition, although the public debt-to-GDP ratio is declining rapidly, it remains very high compared with many EU countries.
Therefore, Greece’s story is not that it has “completely escaped risk”, but rather:
The economy is now in a much stronger financial position than before and continues to improve.
Why do these fiscal figures matter to real estate investors?
For international investors, a budget surplus may appear to be purely a Government story.
But in reality, it can influence how the market perceives a country.
Improved public finances can contribute to:
- Strengthening confidence in the economy;
- Reducing debt pressure in the long term;
- Improving access to capital;
- Creating more room for infrastructure investment;
- Supporting stability in the business environment.
In particular, when combined with EU funding, tourism and private investment, the process of fiscal consolidation can become part of the foundation for long-term growth.
The European Commission forecasts that investment in Greece will continue to receive strong support in 2026 from funding through the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF).
A changing Greece
If we look back over more than a decade, Greece’s story today is not only about one surplus figure.
It is about simultaneous changes across multiple areas:
- Public debt is declining
- The primary surplus remains high
- Budget revenue exceeds projections
- Investment continues to increase
- EU funding supports infrastructure and economic transformation
- The tourism market continues to grow
These are the factors helping move Greece into a different stage of development compared with the post-crisis period.
Greece Golden Visa program – An opportunity for residency and asset ownership in Europe
Alongside the improvement in the economy, Greece is currently one of the countries attracting international investors through the Golden Visa program, with investment thresholds ranging from EUR 250,000 – EUR 800,000, depending on the location and type of real estate.
Benefits of participating in the program
European residence card for the whole family
Investors can obtain residence cards for the whole family, including spouses, children and, in many cases, extending to 3 generations, with rights equivalent to European residents.
Freedom of movement within the Schengen Area
The residence card allows visa-free travel and freedom of movement to 29 countries within the Schengen Area, for tourism, business and short-term stays.
Long-term/permanent residence card
Investors can maintain a long-term residence card, provided they continue to hold the real estate investment in accordance with the program’s regulations.
Asset preservation and allocation in Europe
Greece is currently considered one of Europe’s leading potential real estate markets, with prices that remain competitive compared with Western European countries, while also benefiting from tourism, infrastructure investment and EU capital flows.
Looking at Greece from a long-term asset perspective
At Casa Seguro Capital, we believe that an international real estate market cannot be evaluated separately from the economy behind it.
The latest figures on Greece’s budget surplus and public debt show that the country’s public finances are continuing to improve.
The primary surplus in the first seven months of the year reached EUR 5.72 billion, above the initial target; tax revenue reached EUR 42.47 billion, exceeding the projection by EUR 1.11 billion; while the debt-to-GDP ratio continues to decline significantly.
These are noteworthy data points when assessing a country that is attracting international capital and investment.
However, what remains important is choosing the right asset, the right area and the right timing, rather than relying solely on the overall growth story of the country.
For Casa Seguro Capital, Greece is not only a residency destination.
It is a market undergoing a process of financial consolidation, economic restructuring and expanding investment, creating new opportunities for international investors with a long-term perspective.
As public debt falls and public finances strengthen, the next question is no longer simply how far Greece has recovered – but which assets will benefit from the next stage of growth.
